Lockdown is wrong for Africa
Flu pandemics result from the emergence of a new virus to which the human population possesses little or no immunity. They occur reliably but unpredictably every ten years or so, and their extent and intensity varies. Nicholas Christakis, an authority who is worth following on Twitter, has compared COVID-19 to earlier pandemics and concludes that we are in the midst of a once-every-50-year event, perhaps similar to the 1957 flu pandemic.
Flu pandemics can be categorised in terms of severity (the clinical impact on those who become infected) and transmissibility (the speed at which the disease spreads). There is an interesting paper that categorises four earlier flu pandemics (2009, 1968, 1957, 1918) and three non-pandemic flu seasons (1978-79, 2006-07 and 2007-08) in terms of these two measures (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3557974/)
Nicholas Christakis added COVID-19 (or SARS-CoV-2) to the categorisations done for the earlier flu outbreaks. He concludes that COVID-19 has intermediate transmissibility and intermediate severity compared to the earlier outbreaks - see his graph below:
Although a different virus is causing COVID-19, it is sobering to look at how the 1957 pandemic played out. The 1957 flu pandemic killed 1.1 million people impacting poorer countries most. In the United States excess deaths from the 1957 pandemic amounted to 115 700.
The two world maps alongside show the mortality rates for the 1957 pandemic. Data from the countries in the top map were used to estimate the mortality in the poorer countries (bottom map) where no such data were available
The virus outbreak in 1957 also started in central China (they suspect).
The 1957 pandemic ended as people became immune over a period of three years (and the virus became less virulent)
If we can draw lessons from the 1957 pandemic, they are sobering: COVID-19 is going to be with us for a prolonged period and Africa is not going to be spared
With all global focus on COVID-19, it is an important to maintain a perspective on the pandemic and the risks posed for South Africa. An important article appeared in the Mail & Guardian a few days ago by Profession Alex Broadbent (https://mg.co.za/analysis/2020-04-08-lockdown-is-wrong-for-africa/) where he argues that we are endangering more lives by locking down in South Africa than we are saving by suppressing the spread of COVID-19. This is an important perspective for the politicians who have the unenviable task of deciding for all of us how best to react to the pandemic
10 April 2020
Flu pandemics can be categorised in terms of severity (the clinical impact on those who become infected) and transmissibility (the speed at which the disease spreads). There is an interesting paper that categorises four earlier flu pandemics (2009, 1968, 1957, 1918) and three non-pandemic flu seasons (1978-79, 2006-07 and 2007-08) in terms of these two measures (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3557974/)
Nicholas Christakis added COVID-19 (or SARS-CoV-2) to the categorisations done for the earlier flu outbreaks. He concludes that COVID-19 has intermediate transmissibility and intermediate severity compared to the earlier outbreaks - see his graph below:
Although a different virus is causing COVID-19, it is sobering to look at how the 1957 pandemic played out. The 1957 flu pandemic killed 1.1 million people impacting poorer countries most. In the United States excess deaths from the 1957 pandemic amounted to 115 700.
The virus outbreak in 1957 also started in central China (they suspect).
The 1957 pandemic ended as people became immune over a period of three years (and the virus became less virulent)
If we can draw lessons from the 1957 pandemic, they are sobering: COVID-19 is going to be with us for a prolonged period and Africa is not going to be spared
With all global focus on COVID-19, it is an important to maintain a perspective on the pandemic and the risks posed for South Africa. An important article appeared in the Mail & Guardian a few days ago by Profession Alex Broadbent (https://mg.co.za/analysis/2020-04-08-lockdown-is-wrong-for-africa/) where he argues that we are endangering more lives by locking down in South Africa than we are saving by suppressing the spread of COVID-19. This is an important perspective for the politicians who have the unenviable task of deciding for all of us how best to react to the pandemic
10 April 2020
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