4th Wave profile is emerging

With the weekly new COVID-19 infections having peaked on 15 December, we are now in a position to understand the severity profile of the 4th wave. The good news is that the 4th wave disease severity as measure in terms of hospital admissions is 2/3rd of that experienced in the 3rd wave. The 4th wave disease severity as measured in terms of reported deaths is only 15% of that experienced in the 3rd wave.


Weekly COVID-19 hospital admissions reached a peak some 12 days after the peak in infections at a level of 2/3rds of the 3rd wave peak.


The new COVID-19 weekly deaths show signs of having peaked but only at a level equivalent to the weekly deaths experience between the 2nd and 3rd waves. Reporting delays may well be distorting these results!



4 January 2022

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