Are we in for a heavy flu season in South Africa?

The latest data on weekly deaths from natural causes by the South African Medical Research Council shows a sharp uptick. The graph below plots the weekly deaths in excess of the average reported between 1 January 2020 and 15 March 2020 (the period not impacted by COVID-19).


There is no evidence of an uptick in either reported COVID-19 deaths or reported COVID-19 hospital admissions. It would then appear as if this uptick is due to a greater impact of seasonal flu. A number of commentators have warned against this given the absence of seasonal flu infections in 2020 and 2021 resulting in reduced natural immunity in the population.

20 June 2022





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