The third wave in the Western Cape must be monitored

The reported COVID-19 infections continue on their downward trajectory for Gauteng. However, the patterns for the Western Cape and KwaZulu Natal need to be monitored. The missing week in the reported infections (due to the civil unrest) for KwaZulu Natal is clearly evident in the graph below.


The graph of reported COVID-19 hospital admissions set out below shows the trajectory of the third-wave for the Western Cape. 


Our projections for the third-wave in the Western Cape may be too optimistic as can be seen from the graph below. We will monitor the data on hospital admission for the coming week and decide whether to recalibrate the NMG model.


28 July 2021




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Time to consider the 4th wave?

Image
We have updated the NMG model to consider various scenarios for the 4th wave of COVID-19 infections for South Africa. You can access the model at  https://nmg-covid-19.sctechnology.co.za/ It will take a sustained viral propagation above a threshold speed to generate a noticeable 4th wave. The first 4th wave scenario is displayed below assuming a viral propagation speed of Rt = 3.0 for a period of 100 days starting on 15 October 2021.  The second scenario shows the impact of a viral propagation speed of Rt = 4.0 for the 4th wave. It is important to note that to reach Rt = 4.0 in the current South African population would require a viral strain with a basic reproduction number of over 12 (some four times the speed of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus). This calculation is based on the NMG model, where some 67.5% of the South African population is assumed to have built up immunity to reinfection due to infection over the first three waves.  A material 4th wave could be caused by a viral strai
Read more

4th Wave profile is emerging

Image
With the weekly new COVID-19 infections having peaked on 15 December, we are now in a position to understand the severity profile of the 4th wave. The good news is that the 4th wave disease severity as measure in terms of hospital admissions is 2/3rd of that experienced in the 3rd wave. The 4th wave disease severity as measured in terms of reported deaths is only 15% of that experienced in the 3rd wave. Weekly COVID-19 hospital admissions reached a peak some 12 days after the peak in infections at a level of 2/3rds of the 3rd wave peak. The new COVID-19 weekly deaths show signs of having peaked but only at a level equivalent to the weekly deaths experience between the 2nd and 3rd waves. Reporting delays may well be distorting these results! 4 January 2022
Read more

COVID-19 death toll increases in Gauteng

Image
The third wave shows no sign yet of reaching a peak in Gauteng and, equally as worrying, the reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in this province. The gradient of the third wave in the Western Cape would appear to indicate that the Delta variant has not yet spread beyond Gauteng. Reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in Gauteng which is of concern Reported COVID-19 hospital admissions in Gauteng are showing signs of plateauing at a level equivalent to the second-wave peak in that province. This is almost certainly due to having reached hospital capacity. 7 July 2021
Read more