The third wave continues to build in Gauteng

Average daily new infections in Gauteng reached a peak of just over 5000 in the first two waves. The average daily new infections in Gauteng have now achieved a level of just over 2500, but the trajectory is still upwards. The graph below compares the 7-day moving average of new infections for each of the three waves in Gauteng from the time that new infections first started to increase.


While new infections in Gauteng show a trajectory that can clearly be classified as a third wave, no third wave is evident in the other large provinces of KwaZulu Natal, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape.


The graph of new COVID-19 hospital admissions tells a similar story to that of new infections with only Gauteng showing evidence of a third wave.


The story from the graph of reported COVID-19 deaths is less clear and is shown below for completeness.


10 June 2021








Comments

  1. NoopnrJune 13, 2021 at 2:21 PM

    Do we have any good papers on the IFR for the Beta variant? If it is as different as the Kent (Alpha) variant then model calibration could be out by quite a factor and total infected might be much lower than your model shows leaving more susceptible for the third wave.

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