Is the third wave the worst wave?

The new COVID-19 infections reported for Gauteng have reached the 5000 per day mark (when averaged over the previous 7 days). The third wave started off less steep than the other two waves but this has all changed over the last week. The President is not being alarmist when he warned that the peak of the third-wave in Gauteng is likely to overshadow the peak of the second wave.


The hospital admissions of COVID-19 patients is following a similar trajectory in Gauteng albeit with a week or so delay.  There is early evidence of a third wave building in the Western Cape in both the new infections and hospital admissions.


The graph of reported COVID-19 deaths in Gauteng is also on an upward trajectory.


16 June 2021


Comments

  1. NoopnrJune 17, 2021 at 1:54 PM

    Seems possible your modeling assumptions are well out. If just 45% of the population were susceptible then R couldn't be at a level to support the acceleration we are seeing. So either reinfections must be a major factor (which WC daily figures don't seem to indicate - although it is difficult to know how many first infections were never detected) OR your IFR is too low by quite an order of magnitude.

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