No third wave still

There is still no sign of a third wave if we look at the new reported COVID-19 infections. The graph below plots a 7-day average of new infections by province:


The analysis of new COVID-19 hospital admissions displays a little more noise but no trend lines pointing to a third wave:


We will continue to monitor the data to see if the winter months bring any viral activity.

1 May 2021



Comments

  1. NoopnrMay 7, 2021 at 1:26 PM

    Useful too see that as of yesterday the Western Cape have added a reinfection count to their daily reporting. This will be helpful in understanding how a third wave might evolve in the WC - in particular understanding whether the exposed population is the approx 45% who haven't had it or more.

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    Replies
    1. NoopnrMay 9, 2021 at 6:35 PM

      With a few days of reporting in for the WC reinfection seems to be just over 1% overall but just over 6% of net new daily cases. Given perhaps 50-80% of cases would have gone undetected in the past that looks pretty material.

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