Is there a spike in COVID-19 hospital admissions in Gauteng?

An analysis of new reported COVID-19 hospital admissions shows a spike in admissions for Gauteng as can be seen from the graph below. This pattern is not evident from the analysis of COVID-19 infections in Gauteng so we should treat it as an anomaly for now. 


If we consider the pattern of new reported COVID-19 hospital admission for the country as a whole we can see that in the last month the actual reported admissions have deviated from the NMG model forecast that was set just before the peak of the second wave. While there is no sign of a third wave, the reported admissions suggest that viral infections have settled at a level in the population just above the level experienced between the first two waves.


The NMG model infers that just over 55% of the South African population are or have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Even with only 45% of uninfected lives, the virus is still managing to survive at a steady level in the population. 

This implies that the virus will still pose a hazard to those who have not yet been infected and these lives should get themselves vaccinated as soon as they are able. I have yet to see evidence that the vaccination is necessary for those lives who have already been infected. 

21 April 2021


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