Still no sign of a third wave

While we wait in anticipation of a third wave of COVID-19 in South Africa, we continue to monitor the new reported cases of COVID-19 infections, COVID-19 hospital admissions and COVID-19 deaths. The graphs below plot these three metrics as a 7-day moving average by province. Based on this analysis, there is still no sign of a third wave!

The first graph plots the new COVID-19 reported infections:


The second graph plots the new COVID-19 reported hospital admissions. The data are taken from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) website (the data reported for the first wave were not complete and were derived from published NICD charts)


The third graph plots the new COVID-19 reported deaths. 


There is some evidence of an uptick in reported COVID-19 deaths for KwaZulu Natal but this uptick is not supported by the data on new infections and new hospital admissions. We will continue to monitor these three metrics on a weekly basis.

24 March 2021

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