Is the 501Y.V2 variant more deadly?

The experts tell us that the 501Y.V2 variant is more infectious that the original SARS-CoV-2 virus but not more deadly. This is not what the modelling is telling me. The latest NMG model is fitted to COVID-19 hospital admissions reported to 20 January 2021 for the second wave (the first wave was fitted to COVID-19 deaths as the hospital admission data was incomplete). 

The model's forecast of COVID-19 deaths for the second wave does not reflect the peak in reported and unreported COVID-19 deaths as the graph demonstrates. The graph shows a 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths for South Africa,


An improvement in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths since the first wave would also explain this picture so some further analysis is needed.

The model fit to COVID-19 hospital admissions is shown below for completeness. 






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