Our COVID model has been recalibrated for the second wave

The festive break has started with evidence that a second wave of COVID-19 is evident not only in the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape but also in KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng. We have had to recalibrate the NMG model to account for this second wave. The graph below shows the model predictions for COVID-19 hospital admissions (7-day moving average) for South Africa as a whole


Just a week ago, we were still hopeful that the second wave might be a phenomenon that only impacts the Eastern and Western Cape. The model predictions for COVID-19 hospital admission a week ago (on 9 December) is shown below to show how quickly this second wave has shown itself. 


The NMG model with default assumptions is now forecasting 63000 reported and unreported deaths from COVID-19. This is well in excess of the 10000 mark that some commentators were suggesting was an upper limit for the pandemic in South Africa.

18 December 2020 


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