Could the second wave be as deadly as the first?

The 7-day moving average of COVID-19 hospital admissions in the Eastern Cape reached a maximum level of 222 this past week. This is not far off the average of 243 measured over two weeks in June/July. The extent to which the moving average has breached the model forecast set last week is evident from the graph below.


The picture for the Western Cape is similarly concerning with the 7-day moving average for COVID-19 hospital admissions reaching 163 this past week. This compares to an average of 216 measured over two weeks in June/July. The extent to which the moving average has also breached the model forecast set last week is evident from the graph below.


We will continue to monitor these two provinces and look for signs of a second wave in the other seven provinces. You can access the latest NMG model and conduct your own what-if forecasts at https://nmg-covid-19.sctechnology.co.za/


9 December 2020

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