Can we learn anything from the MRC data?

It is important to make sure that the October spike in reported COVID-19 deaths is real and not a result of reporting delays before considering harder lockdown restrictions. I have analysed the excess natural deaths derived from the Medical Research Council (MRC) data in this blog to see if the October spike in reported COVID-19 deaths can be corroborated.

The COVID-19 deaths are referred to as 'estimated' in the graphs on account of the adjustment made for unreported deaths. A constant factor has been used to gross up the reported COVID-19 deaths to get the estimated COVID-19 deaths so the shape of the reported deaths in unaffected.

The first two graphs show the Western Cape and Gauteng. The shape of the excess MRC deaths would appear to support the earlier and flatter peak of the first wave of infections in the Western Cape. There is, however, evidence of a greater delay in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths in Gauteng.



The next graphs consider the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu Natal. There is little evidence of a second wave or spike of COVID-19 deaths in these provinces using the MRC data. Could the October spike in the reported COVID-19 deaths arise from reporting delays in these provinces?



The final two graphs are for the Free State and the other four provinces. Interestingly, the shape of the MRC data for excess deaths in the Free State is similar to that of the other provinces. This would indicate that the different pattern for the reported COVID-19 deaths might be caused by reporting delays in this province.



There is some indication in the MRC data for excess deaths of an October spike in the graph that combines Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Northern Cape and the North West Province. These deaths could however be as a result of the secondary effects of COVID-19 rather than caused by the disease itself.

Just to repeat, it is important to make sure that the October spike in reported COVID-19 deaths are not a result of reporting delays before considering harder lockdown restrictions!

31 October 2020

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Update on COVID 19 tracking in SA

Image
An analysis of the weekly deaths from natural causes as reported by the SA Medical Research Council (SAMRC) shows evidence of elevated excess deaths over the winter months of 2022. The graph below shows the weekly deaths reported by SAMRC in excess of the average weekly deaths reported between 1 January 2020 and 15 March 2020.  The COVID-19 hospital deaths as reported by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) would appear to follow a similar pattern to that shown by the SAMRC excess deaths but with a more muted 5th wave. Anecdotally, the number of COVID-19 cases appear to be on the rise in South Africa although COVID-19 cases are no longer reported on a regular basis (outside of a hospital setting).  The above graphs show that the COVID-19 disease severity is certainly not near the levels experienced in the first three waves. 4 November 2022
Read more

COVID-19 death toll increases in Gauteng

Image
The third wave shows no sign yet of reaching a peak in Gauteng and, equally as worrying, the reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in this province. The gradient of the third wave in the Western Cape would appear to indicate that the Delta variant has not yet spread beyond Gauteng. Reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in Gauteng which is of concern Reported COVID-19 hospital admissions in Gauteng are showing signs of plateauing at a level equivalent to the second-wave peak in that province. This is almost certainly due to having reached hospital capacity. 7 July 2021
Read more

The third wave in the Western Cape

Image
The daily reported COVID-19 infections in the Western Cape have overtaken those in Gauteng, and show no sign of having reached a peak. This pattern is also evident in the comparison of reported COVID-19 hospital admissions: We have adjusted the duration of the third wave modeling in the Western Cape to better fit the data.  4 August 2021
Read more