Will the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 be over by Christmas?

Reported COVID-19 deaths in Gauteng show signs of having peaked at just over 100 daily deaths (7-day average) and we now begin to monitor the journey down the back of the SARS-CoV-2 wave.  There is still nothing in the data that would point to a lower population infection rate in Gauteng than what we are seeing in the Western Cape. 

This would mean that over 20% of the South African population will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first wave of the virus. The graph below plots the shape of the first wave for South Africa.
Based on the NMG modelling, we should be hitting the peak in daily reported deaths in the next month and then reported deaths should start to decline.  The peak in infections can be expected some two weeks before the peak in reported deaths.  From the data reported for the Western Cape, hospitalisations due to COVID-19 can be expected to move in tandem with the reported deaths.

The question must now turn to whether we should be anticipating a second wave of infections in South Africa and to what extent 'herd immunity' within the population will dampen its impact if indeed there is a second wave.  Without a second wave, COVID-19 would appear to be a 2020 event with little spill over into 2021.

6 August 2020




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