How to deal with unreported COVID-19 deaths

The percentages infected in the first wave as implied by the NMG model before adjustment for unreported COVID-19 deaths differ quite markedly across the provinces:

Western Cape:    25% infected
Gauteng:             15% infected
KwaZulu Natal:  10% infected

This is puzzling as the low seroprevalence level implied for Gauteng when compared to the Western Cape makes little sense. This could, however, be explained by a greater level of under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths in Gauteng, and this hypothesis is supported by the reporting of all-causes natural deaths by the Medical Research Council (MRC).

An allowance has been included for unreported COVID-19 deaths in the latest release of the NMG model. This has largely restored the implied seroprevalence levels to what they were in the model before the infection peaks were reached, namely:

Western Cape:    25% infected
Gauteng:             25% infected
KwaZulu Natal:  20% infected

The first wave of daily COVID-19 deaths (reported and unreported) are then forecast as follows for the three largest provinces:




I can now (hopefully) turn to the issue of modelling second and subsequent infection waves for South Africa.

26 August 2020

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