Western Cape deaths start to come down off their peak

Reported COVID-19 deaths in the Western Cape for the week ending 7 July 2020 appear to be following a trend down from a peak in reported deaths that lasted just on a month.  If the reduction in reported deaths continues at this rate, the total number infected in the Western Cape after the first wave of COVID-19 infections will be between 13% and 16% of those resident in the province.  COVID-19 deaths will be between 3600 and 4500 for the Western Cape.


Reported COVID-19 deaths in Gauteng for the week to 7 July 2020 are almost three times larger than the deaths reported one week earlier.  This dramatic increase in reported deaths mirrors the increase in COVID-19 hospital admissions reported for this province.  The increase in reported deaths still has someway to go before reaching the levels experienced in the Western Cape (adjusting for the difference in populations).  From the modelling shown in the graph below, if reported deaths for Gauteng were to peak at the current levels, then 5% of the residents in the province will have been infected by the time the first wave has passed.   


Reported COVID-19 deaths in the Eastern Cape for the week to 7 July 2020 would appear to support a much slower growth rate in this province than that experienced in the Western Cape.  Delayed reporting could well account for this different pattern in COVID-19 deaths.  Nevertheless, we decided to reflect this slower growth rate in the NMG modelling for the Eastern Cape.  We have still retained our assumption for now that 16% of the population will be infected in the first wave. 


There appears to be greater clarity on the impact of the first wave of COVID-19 infections in the Western Cape, but the impact on the other provinces is still unclear.  The experience in Gauteng will be important to monitor over the next four weeks by which time reported weekly deaths are expected to reach the peak experienced in the Western Cape.  

We need to also keep an eye on the Eastern Cape to see whether the infection rate has indeed slowed down or the current trend is as a result of reporting delays in this province.

8 July 2020





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