Reported deaths in the Western Cape have hit a plateau not a peak

The 7-day moving average for reported COVID-19 deaths in the Western Cape has stayed within a range of 45 to 50 for the past three weeks.  If the deaths start to decline now, we should see between 13% and 16% of the population infected by the end of the first wave of infections in the Western Cape. 


The 7-day moving average for the Eastern Cape shows evidence of the reported deaths having reached a plateau range of 10 to 15.  This is well before the level at which 5% of the population will infected by the first wave of the virus (as determined using the experience in the Western Cape).  From the evidence to 30 June, it would appear as if the Eastern Cape may well have a very different first wave experience.


It is still very early days for Gauteng with the average of reported deaths having just reached 13 for the 7 days to 30 June.  The increasing numbers of reported deaths is still very much following the upward slope of the first wave as defined by the Western Cape.


We will continue to monitor the reported deaths in the major provinces as the best indication of what can be expected from the pandemic in South Africa as a whole.  

The NMG model has been updated with the experience to 30 June and is available at https://nmg-covid-19.sctechnology.co.za/

1 July 2020



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Update on COVID 19 tracking in SA

Image
An analysis of the weekly deaths from natural causes as reported by the SA Medical Research Council (SAMRC) shows evidence of elevated excess deaths over the winter months of 2022. The graph below shows the weekly deaths reported by SAMRC in excess of the average weekly deaths reported between 1 January 2020 and 15 March 2020.  The COVID-19 hospital deaths as reported by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) would appear to follow a similar pattern to that shown by the SAMRC excess deaths but with a more muted 5th wave. Anecdotally, the number of COVID-19 cases appear to be on the rise in South Africa although COVID-19 cases are no longer reported on a regular basis (outside of a hospital setting).  The above graphs show that the COVID-19 disease severity is certainly not near the levels experienced in the first three waves. 4 November 2022
Read more

COVID-19 death toll increases in Gauteng

Image
The third wave shows no sign yet of reaching a peak in Gauteng and, equally as worrying, the reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in this province. The gradient of the third wave in the Western Cape would appear to indicate that the Delta variant has not yet spread beyond Gauteng. Reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in Gauteng which is of concern Reported COVID-19 hospital admissions in Gauteng are showing signs of plateauing at a level equivalent to the second-wave peak in that province. This is almost certainly due to having reached hospital capacity. 7 July 2021
Read more

The third wave in the Western Cape

Image
The daily reported COVID-19 infections in the Western Cape have overtaken those in Gauteng, and show no sign of having reached a peak. This pattern is also evident in the comparison of reported COVID-19 hospital admissions: We have adjusted the duration of the third wave modeling in the Western Cape to better fit the data.  4 August 2021
Read more