Gauteng is still on an upward path

Reported COVID-19 deaths in Gauteng are still on a steep upward path but should peak in the next two weeks at around 100 daily deaths (at least according to the latest NMG model).  The NMG model is informed by the experience in the Western Cape.

Gauteng would need to reach a peak in the next two weeks and begin to decline in the following two weeks if 20% of those resident in the province are to be infected in the first wave (as is the experience in the Western Cape).


The daily reported deaths in the Eastern Cape increased by 400 on 21 July which has distorted the pattern.  The wave of infections in the Eastern Cape will probably not be a steep as shown in the graph below and will be adjusted as more data points are reported.


The wave of infections in KwaZulu Natal are, like Gauteng, on a steep upward path but are some weeks off reaching a peak


From the data reported for the Western Cape, the pattern for  COVID-19 hospital beds and daily deaths appear to move in sync with each other . If this is repeated in the other provinces, it would suggest that daily deaths shown above are a good indicator of hospital bed demand.


30 July 2020


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