Gauteng hits the 10% infected mark

The NMG model suggests that 10% of those resident in Gauteng will be infected by the first wave of the SARS-COV-2 virus if the daily reported deaths reach a peak in this province in the next 7 days. The virus propagation to 14 July, however, shows no signs of slowing down. 

The virus propagation in Gauteng is following the trajectory that was experienced in the Western Cape when adjusted for the difference in population size.  This is shown in the graph below:


The 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths continues to fall in the Western Cape.  The patterns appears to support a scenario where 16% of those resident in the province will be infected by the first wave of the virus.


The virus propagation in KZN also continues to follow the pattern experienced in the Western Cape, although this province lags behind Gauteng.

Finally, the virus continues to follow a different growth pattern in the Eastern Cape.  The slower growth rate points to a later peak in infections in this province than was originally forecast.


The NMG model assumes that 16% of the South African population will be infected in the first wave of SARS-COV-2 infections.  This would appear to be a reasonable assumption for the Western Cape but it is still too early to call for the other provinces.  

The NMG model can be accessed at https://nmg-covid-19.sctechnology.co.za/


15 July 2020






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