Will we run out of hospital beds in the Western Cape?

Tracking the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa started with an analysis of country-wide confirmed cases.  Some weeks ago, we switched from  using confirmed cases as the primary indicator of the pandemic trajectory to used reported COVID-19 deaths.  With the model inferring that only 5% of cases are reported, it was important to use the more reliable statistic of reported deaths to inform the NMG model.

We are now at the point where the focus switches from a country-wide tracking of the pandemic to the Western Cape. The Western Cape is leading the way in terms of both confirmed cases and reported deaths.  The focus should also ideally switch from tracking COVID-19 deaths to tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions. The hospitals (public and private) will be at the front-line in dealing with the pandemic.

Information on bed capacity in both public and private hospitals is difficult to come by (at least that has proved to be the case for me).  I have had to rely on discussions with various individuals and anecdotes from these discussions to form a first view of anticipated bed capacity.  I am posting my projections on COVID-19 bed capacity in the Western Cape on this blog not because I have any confidence that they are correct, but rather in the hope that I can find sources of information on bed capacity to better inform the projections. 

The line-graph below plots the demand for acute and critical care beds for COVID-19 patients in the Western Cape.  The bars show how this demand could be met from the bed capacity in the public and private hospitals.

If you look closely, you can see that bed capacity is exceeded on 23 June 2020 just as the projected peak in the demand for COVID-19 hospital beds is reached.  The projected demand for beds is taken from the NMG model projections using a 40% herd immunity parameter.

It is important to point out that these initial projections highlight a shortage of critical care beds some days earlier on 16 June.  I would just repeat my view that I have no real confidence that these projections for bed capacity are realistic but am hoping that as more information becomes available, we will be able to firm up on the projections.

It goes without saying that the experience in the Western Cape will be important to inform what can be expected in the other provinces as this pandemic moves through the South African population.

2 June 2020