The reported deaths for the Western Cape may well have peaked. Let's hope so!

According to the NMG model with a herd immunity parameter of 10%, the daily reported deaths in the Western Cape would have peaked last week.  The reported deaths for the province averaged 39 per day for the last five days to 14 June, and this looks suspiciously as if the deaths have indeed peaked.


Having said this, it is very early to be making a call that the reported deaths have peaked in the Western Cape. The last five days could easily turn out to be an anomaly and distorted in some way.

If the reported deaths have indeed reached a peak, then the trend in reported infections should have shown signs of slowing down some two weeks ago.  This is not the case as the graph below shows us:



Reported infections can be subject to reporting delays and different patterns can emerge when testing protocols are changed.  Having said this, the lack of a good model fit for reported infections does cast doubt on the credibility of the reported deaths data.  It is then prudent to wait another week before deciding whether the last five days of reported deaths in the Western Cape are an anomaly or indeed represent a peak in COVID-19 deaths.


15 June 2020 



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Update on COVID 19 tracking in SA

Image
An analysis of the weekly deaths from natural causes as reported by the SA Medical Research Council (SAMRC) shows evidence of elevated excess deaths over the winter months of 2022. The graph below shows the weekly deaths reported by SAMRC in excess of the average weekly deaths reported between 1 January 2020 and 15 March 2020.  The COVID-19 hospital deaths as reported by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) would appear to follow a similar pattern to that shown by the SAMRC excess deaths but with a more muted 5th wave. Anecdotally, the number of COVID-19 cases appear to be on the rise in South Africa although COVID-19 cases are no longer reported on a regular basis (outside of a hospital setting).  The above graphs show that the COVID-19 disease severity is certainly not near the levels experienced in the first three waves. 4 November 2022
Read more

COVID-19 death toll increases in Gauteng

Image
The third wave shows no sign yet of reaching a peak in Gauteng and, equally as worrying, the reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in this province. The gradient of the third wave in the Western Cape would appear to indicate that the Delta variant has not yet spread beyond Gauteng. Reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in Gauteng which is of concern Reported COVID-19 hospital admissions in Gauteng are showing signs of plateauing at a level equivalent to the second-wave peak in that province. This is almost certainly due to having reached hospital capacity. 7 July 2021
Read more

The third wave in the Western Cape

Image
The daily reported COVID-19 infections in the Western Cape have overtaken those in Gauteng, and show no sign of having reached a peak. This pattern is also evident in the comparison of reported COVID-19 hospital admissions: We have adjusted the duration of the third wave modeling in the Western Cape to better fit the data.  4 August 2021
Read more