Model forecast


NMG has released a web-based version of the their model today that will allow interested parties to generate different COVID-19 forecast scenarios for South Africa.  The model can be accessed at https://nmg-covid-19.sctechnology.co.za/

The model is fitted to the latest numbers for confirmed cases reported for South Africa. The confirmed cases were on exponential growth path up until lockdown on 27 March 2020 when the growth path began to follow a more linear pattern.  The graph alongside shows how the model has been fitted to this experience.

The model uses the growth path for the reported infections to generate a forecast for future infections. From this forecast estimates can be made for the lives needing hospitalsation and fatalities from the disease.  While the rate of infections is on a growth path, the pandemic will work its way through the majority of the population.  At a very high growth path, close to 90% of the population will become infected.  At lower growth paths, the proportion of the population that eventually becomes infected reduces.

 For the growth path that is fitted to the confirmed cases reported to 5 April for South Africa, the model shows the numbers infected peaking on 27 August 2020 with daily new symptomatic infections reaching just over 1 million.  



At this growth path, the model forecasts that 54% of the population will be infected with COVID-19 before herd immunity is reached and the infections stop.

 6 April 2020











Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Update on COVID 19 tracking in SA

Image
An analysis of the weekly deaths from natural causes as reported by the SA Medical Research Council (SAMRC) shows evidence of elevated excess deaths over the winter months of 2022. The graph below shows the weekly deaths reported by SAMRC in excess of the average weekly deaths reported between 1 January 2020 and 15 March 2020.  The COVID-19 hospital deaths as reported by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) would appear to follow a similar pattern to that shown by the SAMRC excess deaths but with a more muted 5th wave. Anecdotally, the number of COVID-19 cases appear to be on the rise in South Africa although COVID-19 cases are no longer reported on a regular basis (outside of a hospital setting).  The above graphs show that the COVID-19 disease severity is certainly not near the levels experienced in the first three waves. 4 November 2022
Read more

COVID-19 death toll increases in Gauteng

Image
The third wave shows no sign yet of reaching a peak in Gauteng and, equally as worrying, the reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in this province. The gradient of the third wave in the Western Cape would appear to indicate that the Delta variant has not yet spread beyond Gauteng. Reported COVID-19 deaths have gone past the second-wave peak in Gauteng which is of concern Reported COVID-19 hospital admissions in Gauteng are showing signs of plateauing at a level equivalent to the second-wave peak in that province. This is almost certainly due to having reached hospital capacity. 7 July 2021
Read more

The third wave in the Western Cape

Image
The daily reported COVID-19 infections in the Western Cape have overtaken those in Gauteng, and show no sign of having reached a peak. This pattern is also evident in the comparison of reported COVID-19 hospital admissions: We have adjusted the duration of the third wave modeling in the Western Cape to better fit the data.  4 August 2021
Read more